HOW TO GO WITH THE FLOW OF THE MARKET | BUYING A HOME IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
Buying a home in the Greater Phoenix area requires not only an understanding of the seasonal shifts in market activity but also the weekly flow of the market.
Imagine this as a surfing metaphor: Just like seasoned surfers know the perfect time of day to ride the best waves or which seasons to wear a wetsuit, understanding the market cycles can improve your home purchase outcomes. Knowing what to expect empowers you to anticipate and time your moves for optimal results. In this article, you’ll discover valuable insights into the weekly and yearly inventory cycles to consider when buying a home in Metro Phoenix.
The Weekly Inventory Cycle
Sellers typically list their homes as the weekend approaches––when buyers have more time to focus on their home search. Get organized towards the end of the week to plan which homes you’ll visit on the weekend.
Depending on the neighborhood you are looking in, homes will either go for “speed” or go for “the money.” Sellers often choose between swiftly accepting offers or setting deadlines after the weekend to attract more potential buyers, aiming to create multiple offers and increase the price.
If you find a home you like online, promptly notify your agent so they can check with the seller’s agent. They’ll advise your agent if you should rush out to see it or if you can take your time.
Keep in mind that the inventory of homes on the market changes weekly and can vary significantly based on the time of year. When you’ve seriously committed to buying a home, make sure to be as flexible as possible for last minute viewings of new listings. Also, have a strategy in place for sellers who want to sell quickly and for those who have time to hold out for the best offer.
The Yearly Inventory Cycle
The housing market in Metro Phoenix was hot all throughout the pandemic years. While the frenzy slowed down mid 2022, it picked back up in 2023 at a less frantic pace and inventory (the number of homes on the market) is still low. However, with higher interest rates, buyers have less competition, and some sellers are willing to negotiate.
In addition to the yearly trends, there is a seasonal flow to the market. A typical seasonal trend in Metro Phoenix looks something like this:
- Inventory in Greater Phoenix looks like a bell curve starting low at the beginning of January, and quickly picking up mid-January, peaking in May.
- Suburban homes can follow the school calendar and become available in April/May/June. However, the general trend in the Valley of The Sun follows the weather. When it is hot, buyers get better deals. When it is gorgeous, people get in the mood to buy houses and competition increases. The Luxury Market in Greater Phoenix slows way down in the summer since people are traveling or at their vacation homes to get out of the heat.
- The overall Metro Phoenix market slows down June through September but picks up a bit around October. Then it continues to slow mid-November through the end of the year when people are focused on the holidays.
What do these trends mean for you?
Go with the flow! If you are starting your search at the end of the year or in the heat of the summer be prepared to find fewer homes––but you’ll have less competition from other buyers. If you plan to house hunt from January to May, you’ll have many more homes to choose from.
Don’t get frustrated or give up on your dream home in Metro Phoenix if timing is simply not on your side. You may need to relax for a few months and wait until more homes appear on the market. And there are exceptions to every rule. You never know when that perfect house will hit the market. Manage your expectations but keep vigilant!
I'm Kathleen and I love sharing the Arizona lifestyle by helping people who are relocating to, or from, Arizona with their real estate needs. Let's talk about how I can help you make your real estate goals happen from wherever you are!
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